The Australian property market is NOT going to drop 7.5%!

It really annoys me when bank PR people get hold of some economic data and suddenly an impending drop in the Australian property market is front page news.

Why can I say that this latest prediction will not come true? Because there is really no such thing as an Australian property market. Look at any national property data (for instance CoreLogic) and you will see that no two capital cities perform in the same way. And then there are regional markets that all have their own cycles to consider. So how can anybody make a claim that the entire country is over-priced or ready for a fall?

Even within Sydney there are dozens (probably hundreds) of micromarkets. A few weeks ago Domain published a graph showing dramatically different auction clearance rates across the areas covered in Sydney-wide data. They ranged from something like 56% in south-west Sydney to well over 80% in the Inner West. So no such claim of a widespread drop would even apply to one city.

Break it down even further and you can’t even rely on suburb statistics. Recently a buyer told me that Balmain had experienced poor capital growth, however when you have property ranging from tiny workers cottages through to harbourfront homes bundled into the same data you are bound to get pretty confusing statistics. Drummoyne units are another example. ON one side of Victoria Road you have a load of 70-80sqm red brick 3 storey walk-up units and on the other you have a bunch of 150sqm+ luxurious waterfront apartments. Any broad data on Drummoyne unit prices has to be considered pretty useless without interpretation.

Bottom line? If you rely on published market data to make your decisions you are missing out on the real information you need – local market knowledge.

 

 

First published:- 16 Oct 2015

 

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